Heavy rain, flooding threat begins tonight; Flood Watch in effect

Rain will arrive in Kerr County earlier than initially expected, with showers and thunderstorms likely Wednesday night as a Pacific storm system interacts with deep Gulf moisture.

The National Weather Service said rain chances increase to 70% Wednesday night, with showers likely after 9 p.m. and continuing through the overnight hours. A quarter to half-inch of rain is possible before dawn.

Thursday will bring the heaviest rainfall, with a 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters expect 1-2 inches of rain Thursday, with total storm accumulations of 1-3 inches and isolated amounts up to 6 inches across the Hill Country.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for Kerr County from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. Creeks, streams and low-water crossings could flood.

Before the rain arrives, dense fog could develop overnight Wednesday across parts of the Hill Country. Forecasters said dewpoint temperatures will nearly match air temperatures, creating saturated conditions. Some drizzle is also possible before dawn.

Wednesday will remain unseasonably warm and humid, with a high near 81 and a 30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy skies are expected to give way to scattered breaks in the clouds during the day.

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail are possible Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, though the highest probabilities for severe weather lie west of Kerrville.

Winds will shift from southeast to north Thursday afternoon as a cold front moves through, with gusts up to 20 mph. Rain should taper off Friday morning, with only a 30% chance of showers before noon.

Cooler temperatures will follow, with Friday’s high near 77 under mostly sunny skies.