Flood threat upgraded: Moderate risk issued for Hill Country; up to 8 inches of rain possible

The National Weather Service upgraded its flood threat assessment for the Hill Country on Wednesday afternoon, issuing a Moderate Risk — level 3 of 4 — for excessive rainfall tonight through Thursday.

Forecasters now expect rainfall totals of 1-3 inches across Kerr County, with isolated amounts of 6-8 inches possible in the hardest-hit areas. The increased threat comes as atmospheric moisture levels approach record territory.

“If model forecasts are correct, we will likely see precipitable water values of near 1.75 inches early tomorrow morning, which would be a daily maximum at Del Rio,” forecasters wrote.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will develop this evening near the Rio Grande, then move northeast into the Hill Country overnight. The heaviest rainfall is expected across the western Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau from Wednesday night through Thursday.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for Kerr County through Friday morning. Creeks, streams and low-water crossings could flood as heavy rain falls on already saturated ground.

Some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, mainly west of Interstate 35.

Rain will continue Thursday with a 90 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will shift from southeast to north as a cold front moves through, with gusts up to 20 mph.

Forecasters warned another round of heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday, though uncertainty remains about that system’s track and intensity. The Weather Prediction Center has already introduced a slight risk for excessive rainfall across Central Texas for that timeframe.

“Any heavy rains combined with moist soils will likely lead to quicker runoff and an increased threat for flooding,” the weather service cautioned.

Residents in flood-prone areas should monitor conditions closely and be prepared to move to higher ground if flooding develops.