BREAKING: Flood Watch in effect for Kerr County tonight; state weather briefing warns of multi-day flooding threat

A Flood Watch is in effect for Kerr County beginning at 9 p.m. Thursday and continuing through Friday evening — and a state weather threat briefing issued Thursday morning warns the flooding danger extends well beyond this weekend.

The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio issued the watch, which covers 25 counties across South Central Texas including Kerr, Gillespie, Bandera, Real, Edwards, Kendall, Blanco and 18 others. Forecasters warn there is a potential for life-threatening flooding somewhere in the watch area.

The NWS Southern Region’s State of Texas Weather Threat Brief, prepared in coordination with the Texas Division of Emergency Management, identifies Friday as the greatest threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the region.

Tonight’s threat

Severe thunderstorms are possible from 6 p.m. through 1 a.m., with rainfall rates that could reach 1 to 3 inches per hour. High-resolution forecast guidance shows isolated “bullseye” totals of 4 to 5 inches possible in localized areas through Friday morning.

Friday’s threat

Friday brings another round of severe storms, with the primary threat window in the late afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast across broad areas, with isolated bullseye amounts of 6 to 7 inches possible. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary severe weather threats, with isolated tornadoes a secondary concern. The high will reach only near 66 with north-northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.

River flooding

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is flagging areas along the Interstate 10 corridor — which cuts through the southern edge of Kerr County — for potential river responses as rainfall accumulates. Minor river flooding is considered likely, with moderate flooding possible depending on rainfall rates and location. The state briefing notes the atmosphere is supporting “highly efficient training storms,” a pattern in which storms repeatedly track over the same geographic areas and cause rainfall totals to compound rapidly.

River flooding concerns are projected to persist into next week, with the threat rated at the moderate level Saturday and Sunday before potentially escalating further.

Total rainfall

The NWS projects the Hill Country among the areas most likely to see heavy rainfall accumulation through Tuesday morning. Residents should monitor low-water crossings and urban drainage systems closely throughout the event.

The Flood Watch carries a 70% chance of showers and storms Thursday night, with a low around 58. The NWS warns that excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and low-lying areas, and that low-water crossings may be flooded.

Do not attempt to drive through flooded roadways.

Residents should ensure they have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and emergency alerts before tonight. For the latest watches, warnings and river forecasts, visit weather.gov/EWX or follow @NWSSanAntonio on social media.

The Lead will continue to update this story as conditions develop.