Weak front brings rain chance Saturday, drier air follows

A weak front is set to move through Kerr County this weekend, bringing the best rain chances of the summer so far along with a slight cool-down, according to the National Weather Service.

Saturday carries a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4 p.m., under mostly sunny skies with a high near 94. Wind starts out of the southwest around 5 mph before shifting north in the afternoon as the front arrives. Rain chances continue Saturday night, mainly before 7 p.m., under mostly cloudy skies with a low around 72 and calm wind.

Sunday turns mostly cloudy before gradually clearing to sunny, with a high near 96 and wind becoming east-northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Sunday night stays mostly clear with a low around 72.

Timing of the front is key

Forecasters say the front’s exact timing will determine both temperatures and rain coverage Saturday. Most model guidance brings the front into the area in the late afternoon during peak heating, which gives higher confidence of shower and storm development, though if the front slows down and arrives later there may be less coverage of showers and storms. Rain amounts will generally range from 0.5 to 1.25 inches with any activity, though some isolated pockets above 2 inches will be possible. Storms are expected to track southward with the front, though the boundary may stall near the southern edge of the forecast area by Sunday morning.

The timing will also affect temperatures, with high spread in model guidance for Saturday’s high — there could be a spike in temperatures and heat indices before the front arrives, though greater consensus points to a seasonably hot day with heat index values just below Heat Advisory criteria.

Slight relief Sunday, but heat returns next week

Sunday should see little change in temperature, though drier air and a light northerly wind are expected to keep heat index values a few degrees lower than previous days. A subtropical ridge is then expected to extend back over the area next week, favoring a dry pattern through Friday, with southerly flow reestablishing by Monday afternoon and an uptick in heat indices expected. The weather service is again urging residents to practice heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.