Kerrville Folk Festival opens under threat of active, stormy week

The Kerrville Folk Festival kicks off this week at Quiet Valley Ranch under a weather pattern that forecasters say could bring repeated rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms — a forecast that will feel familiar to anyone who was on the ranch last year when a powerful May storm wiped out The Wilder Blue’s opening night, shredding campsites and dumping intense rainfall across the grounds.

The National Weather Service in Austin and San Antonio is calling for an “active and wet pattern” through the entire week, driven by a stalled cold front expected to settle over the region by midweek and a deep pool of moisture fueling repeated storm chances.

Sunday and Monday offer a brief window of drier conditions, though Monday will be warm and muggy, with highs near 87 degrees and south-southeast winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Heat indices could approach the low 100s across parts of the region.

The pattern shifts Tuesday, when storm chances arrive after 1 p.m. with a 30% probability of showers and thunderstorms. The overnight period looks more concerning, with a 70% chance of storms Tuesday night — the most likely period for significant rainfall midweek.

Wednesday through Friday bring the heart of the active stretch. A 50% storm chance Wednesday gives way to an 80% chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Thursday — the highest probability of the entire forecast period — with a high near 79. Friday and Saturday carry 50% and 40% chances, respectively, as the pattern slowly begins to wind down.

Forecasters warn that localized heavy rainfall could lead to flooding concerns at some point during the week, though they say specific areas and totals remain too uncertain to pinpoint until the pattern gets closer.

Festival-goers camping at Quiet Valley Ranch should plan accordingly — secure tent stakes, waterproof gear and keep an eye on forecasts as the week unfolds. Conditions could change quickly.