Storms likely tonight as active week of possible storms gets underway

A cold front pushing south toward the Hill Country will bring the week’s first significant storm threat Tuesday evening and overnight — the opening act in what forecasters are calling an active and wet pattern likely to persist through the weekend.

Today’s daytime hours should remain relatively quiet, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms arriving after 4 p.m. under cloudy skies and a high near 86. But storm chances climb sharply after sunset. The National Weather Service is forecasting an 80% chance of precipitation Tuesday night, with new rainfall totals of three-quarters to 1 inch possible — and localized pockets of 3 to 5 inches hinted at by forecast models.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 of 5 — Slight — risk of severe weather for the area, with the greatest risk along and west of the Interstate 35 corridor. The primary threat would be isolated damaging winds as a line of thunderstorms pushes south through the region. Flash flooding is also a concern: the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 of 4 — Slight — risk for isolated heavy rain capable of triggering flash flooding, with forecasters noting the signal is slightly elevated for the southern Hill Country.

The line of storms is expected to wind down before dawn Wednesday, with temperatures dropping into the mid-60s overnight — a noticeable cooldown after days of oppressive heat and humidity.

Wednesday brings a 60% storm chance, rising to 90% Wednesday night. Thursday carries an 80% chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Forecasters warn that as successive rounds of rain saturate the ground through the week, the potential for flash flooding and riverine flooding will gradually increase.