Flood watch covers Kerr County from tonight through Tuesday evening

The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for Kerr County and much of south-central Texas on Sunday morning, warning that deep tropical moisture and a stalling front could bring heavy rain and the threat of flash flooding into midweek.

The watch takes effect at 7 p.m. Sunday and runs through Tuesday evening. It covers 33 counties stretching from the Hill Country to the Rio Grande and the coastal plains, including Kerr, Bandera, Gillespie, Kendall, Real and Edwards.

Forecasters expect general rain totals of 1 to 3 inches, but said isolated pockets of 8 inches or more are possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Rainfall rates could top 2 to 3 inches per hour at times.

The main concern, the weather service said, is the potential for narrow bands of heavier storms to set up and stall, dumping rain on the same ground for hours. Flash flooding and rises on area rivers and creeks would be possible near and downstream of the heaviest totals.

“There is a potential for life-threatening flooding somewhere in the watch area,” forecasters wrote, adding that low-water crossings may flood and creeks and streams could rise out of their banks.

Behind the setup is a tropical disturbance that moved inland over Mexico, pushing rich moisture into the region. Moisture levels along the Interstate 35 corridor are forecast to climb into the upper end of anything recorded for mid-June. A cold front is expected to sag south and stall over or near the area, acting as a trigger for storms tonight through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon, with coverage increasing tonight and into Monday.

The unsettled pattern won’t clear quickly. Rain chances shift toward the coastal plains Tuesday into Thursday as leftover spin from the disturbance lifts northeast along the Texas coast — though forecasters cautioned that if that energy tracks farther inland than expected, heavy rain and flooding concerns could return farther west, closer to home. Another round of scattered storms is possible Friday into Saturday. Between rounds, heat indices are expected to climb back into the hazardous range.