The power of water that blasted through Kerr County topped 20,000 cubic feet per second

The catastrophic flood that devastated Kerr County Friday morning unleashed a torrent of water so powerful it shattered decades of records and redefined what officials thought possible along the Guadalupe River.

U.S. Geological Survey data reveals the true magnitude of the disaster: the Guadalupe River at Kerrville peaked at approximately 20,000 cubic feet per second — nearly eight times higher than the previous record of 2,600 cfs set in 2002 and roughly 400 times the river’s normal median flow.

To understand that volume, imagine 20,000 basketballs rushing past a single point every second. The force was sufficient to carry away the stage for Kerrville’s “Fourth on the River” celebration, leaving it crumpled in trees downstream from Louise Hays Park.

“The rain came down 12 inches or more per hour within 45 minutes,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said. “The Guadalupe River rose 26 feet in 45 minutes from what had been a dry bed.”

USGS charts show the river running at normal levels around 10 cubic feet per second for days before July 4, then spiking vertically in a matter of hours to heights that dwarf any previous measurement. The dramatic rise gave residents virtually no warning.

At Johnson Creek near Ingram, another USGS gauge recorded 810 cubic feet per second — nearly three times its previous record of 300 cfs and 68 times its normal median flow of 12 cfs.

The water’s destructive power became tragically evident as the death toll climbed to 13 confirmed fatalities, with Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha warning the number would likely rise. Twenty girls remain unaccounted for at Camp Mystic, where flooding damaged infrastructure and washed out access roads.

“We have swimmers in the water rescuing adults and children out of trees,” Patrick said, describing the massive rescue operation involving 14 helicopters, 12 drones and 400-500 personnel.

The force of the water separated families across the Hill Country. Andrew Lacy, who lives about 10 miles past the Hunt Store on Highway 39, had 15 family members expected at his house but only 12 arrived. Around 3:30 a.m., he received a text from missing relatives saying “they were in a tree.”

In another case, Steve and Marilyn Edwards of San Angelo were camping at the HTX RV resort off Goat Creek Cutoff when floodwaters struck. Their daughters learned their mother was hospitalized but their father remains missing.

The water’s power also crippled infrastructure across the region. It flooded the Hunt electrical substation, left 2,756 utility customers without power and damaged the city’s water treatment plant on Lake Nimitz, forcing Kerrville to switch to backup wells.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said the flood “far surpasses the 87 flow” — referring to the historic 1987 flood that killed 10 teenagers and previously served as the area’s benchmark disaster.

The National Weather Service said the river reached its second-highest level on record, but USGS data suggests Friday’s flood may have actually set a new all-time record. The previous 1987 flood that officials referenced occurred along a different stretch of river upstream at Hunt.

Weather forecasters had issued flood watches and warnings, but the intensity and speed of the rainfall overwhelmed all predictions. The National Weather Service upgraded warnings multiple times throughout the night, eventually issuing rare Flash Flood Emergency declarations as the situation spiraled beyond normal flood response capabilities.