7 things to know before Tuesday’s election

Early voting is over, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Here are seven things to know before the final ballots are cast.

1. Nearly half of Kerr County has already voted

Over 12 days of early voting, 18,909 Kerr County voters cast ballots, 17,742 in person and 1,167 by mail, according to the Texas Secretary of State. That is 47.56% of the county’s 39,762 registered voters, and 22% more than the 15,535 who voted early in the 2022 midterm.

The county has already reached 84% of the 22,604 ballots cast in the entire 2022 election. To match 2022’s total turnout of 57.9%, it would need about 4,100 more ballots on Election Day. In 2022, 6,855 people voted on Election Day.

2. The pace slowed at the end

Kerr County’s early vote started fast. The first day drew 2,538 in-person voters, 43% more than the first day of 2022. By the second week, turnout looked a lot like the last midterm. Friday, the final day, was the only weekday this year that trailed 2022: 1,496 voters, compared with 1,590.

3. Texas’ early vote far outpaced 2022, especially in the big counties

Statewide, 7.62 million Texans voted early, 39.99% of registered voters and 139% of the state’s 2022 early vote. Every one of the state’s 10 largest counties finished at 134% or more of its 2022 early vote. The border counties grew fastest. El Paso finished at 161% and Hidalgo at 159%.

Kerr County, at 122% of its 2022 early vote, grew more slowly than the state. Among Texas’ 100 largest counties, it finished ninth in turnout. Llano led at 53.21%.

Turnout shows who voted, not how they voted.

4. The markets favor Talarico in the Senate race

Prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on who will win, gave Democrat James Talarico about a 70% chance of beating Republican Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate as of Sunday morning, Nov. 1. Kalshi, one of the largest platforms, had Talarico at 70%. Other markets ranged from 69% to 71%.

The polls are closer. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll released Oct. 14 had Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 47%. A Marist poll released Oct. 13 had Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.

What the prediction markets say

Traders’ implied chance of winning, morning of Sunday, Nov. 1

U.S. Senate, Texas

Talarico (D)

70%

Paxton (R)

30%

Texas governor

Hinojosa (D)

34%

Abbott (R)

66%

Control of the U.S. Senate

Democrats

71%

Republicans

29%

Control of the U.S. House

Democrats

93%

Republicans

7%

Source: Kalshi and other prediction markets, Nov. 1, 2026; figures varied by 1 to 3 points across platforms. Market prices reflect bets, not polls of voters. Graphic: The Kerr County Lead

5. The markets favor Abbott for governor

Traders were betting the other way in the governor’s race. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott had about a 66% to 67% chance of beating Democrat Gina Hinojosa on the markets Sunday.

The polls are split. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll had Hinojosa ahead by 1 point, effectively a tie. The Marist poll had Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.

Together, the markets point to a split result in Texas, with Talarico winning the Senate race and Abbott keeping the governor’s office. On one market, that combination was the most likely outcome, at 44%. A Democratic sweep of both races was at 32%.

6. Nationally, traders expect Democrats to win both chambers

Markets gave Democrats a 93% to 94% chance of winning the U.S. House and a 71% to 72% chance of winning the Senate, where Republicans now hold 53 seats. Kalshi’s forecast had Democrats finishing with 52 Senate seats and Republicans 46, with two races, in Iowa and Kansas, essentially toss-ups.

Prediction markets are not polls. Their prices reflect what traders are willing to bet, they can move quickly as news breaks, and they have been wrong before. The Lead will track how they move through Election Day.

7. Locally, all eyes are on Precinct 2

The only contested Kerr County commissioner race is in Precinct 2, where Republican Commissioner Rich Paces faces independent Jeremy Walther.

Precinct 2 finished early voting with 47.5% in-person turnout, just behind Precinct 4’s 48.1%, according to The Lead’s analysis of the county’s early voting rosters. Voting precinct 220, the Riverhill and Comanche Trace area, had the county’s highest turnout at 62.9%.

Where to vote Tuesday

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3, according to the Kerr County Elections Office. Election Day polling places are listed by voting precinct. Your precinct number is on your voter registration card.

Four precincts have new polling places this year: 101, 405, 410 and 416.

Precinct 1

• 101: Guadalupe Basin Natural Resources Center, 125 Lehmann Drive (new location)
• 107: Thunder Hills Biker Church, 111 Camino Real
• 109: Northwest Hills Community Center, 200 Northwest Hills Drive
• 113: St. Paul’s Methodist Church, 135 Methodist Encampment
• 118: Guadalupe Basin Natural Resources Center, 125 Lehmann Drive
• 119: Riverside Church of Christ, 625 Harper Road

Precinct 2

• 202: American Legion Hall, 300 FM 480, Center Point
• 211: Union Church, 101 Travis St.
• 215: Hosanna Lutheran Church, 134 Camp Meeting Road
• 220: Faith Christian Church, 1205 Sidney Baker St. S.

Precinct 3

• 303: Calvary Temple Church, 3000 Loop 534
• 308: Covenant Life Fellowship-Hill Country, 6650 Highway 27, Comfort
• 312: Zion Lutheran Church, 624 Barnett St.
• 314: First Baptist Church, 625 Washington St.

Precinct 4

• 404: Mountain Home Fire Department, 5475 Junction Highway, Mountain Home
• 405: Hunt Community Center, 107 Dutch Lane, Hunt (new location)
• 406: Kerr County West Ingram Annex, 510 College St., Ingram
• 410: Divide Volunteer Fire Department, 4180 Highway 41, Mountain Home (new location)
• 416: Western Hills Baptist Church, 2010 Goat Creek Road (new location)
• 417: Western Hills Baptist Church, 2010 Goat Creek Road

Addresses are in Kerrville unless noted. For questions about your precinct or polling place, contact the Kerr County Elections Office.

The Lead will have results Tuesday night.