As early voting gets underway in Texas, the race for U.S. Senate looks unlike anything else on the ballot.

A new University of Houston poll finds Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, 48% to 46%, while Republicans lead every other statewide race in the poll — from governor down to railroad commissioner. It’s the third independent poll in recent weeks to show Talarico ahead, and the only one of the three to test every statewide contest on the ballot.

The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 2,000 likely voters Oct. 10-14. Its margin of error is plus or minus 2.19 percentage points, so Talarico’s lead is within the margin.

Early voting began Monday and runs through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

One race, three polls, same answer

Three polls taken by three different organizations, using three different methods, all land in the same place on the Senate race:

• UH Hobby School (Oct. 10-14): Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%
• Marist (Oct. 8-11): Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%
• UT/Texas Politics Project (Sept. 25-Oct. 5): Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%

Every one of those leads falls within its poll’s margin of error. But the consistency is notable in a state where Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994.

The rest of the ballot leans Republican

In the Hobby School poll, the Senate race is the only one where the Democrat is ahead:

• U.S. Senate: Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%
• Railroad commissioner: Bo French 45%, Jon Rosenthal 43%
• Governor: Gov. Greg Abbott 49%, Gina Hinojosa 46%
• Lieutenant governor: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick 47%, Vikki Goodwin 42%
• Attorney general: Mayes Middleton 47%, Nathan Johnson 42%
• Agriculture commissioner: Nate Sheets 46%, Clayton Tucker 40%
• Comptroller: Don Huffines 47%, Sarah Eckhardt 40%
• Land commissioner: Dawn Buckingham 47%, Benjamin Flores 40%

The governor’s race tilts toward Abbott in two of the three polls. Marist has him ahead of Hinojosa 49% to 45%; the Hobby School has him up 49% to 46%. Only the UT poll, the oldest of the three, had Hinojosa narrowly ahead, 49% to 48%.

The UT poll was also more favorable to Democrats down the ballot, showing them narrowly ahead for lieutenant governor, attorney general and railroad commissioner. The Hobby School poll shows Republicans ahead in all three.

Why the Senate race is different: Paxton

The polls point to the same explanation. Paxton runs behind the rest of the Republican ticket, and Talarico runs ahead of his.

In the Hobby School poll, Paxton wins 88% of Republicans. Six percent of Republicans back Talarico, and another 3% back Libertarian Ted Brown. Abbott, by comparison, wins 93% of Republicans. In Marist’s poll, 8% of Republicans back Talarico, compared with 5% who back Hinojosa.

Some voters appear to be splitting their tickets: among Abbott voters in the Hobby School poll, 3% back Talarico and 2% back Brown.

Paxton also carries the heaviest baggage of any major candidate. The Hobby School found 41% of likely voters view him favorably and 57% unfavorably. Marist found him at 34% favorable and 56% unfavorable — the worst of any candidate it tested.

By comparison, in the Hobby School poll, Talarico is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50%, and Abbott by 49% and 51%.

Talarico’s support is also more intense. In Marist’s poll, 84% of his voters say they strongly support him, compared with 64% of Paxton’s.

And independents strongly favor Talarico: 60% to 32% in the Hobby School poll, and 52% to 30% in Marist’s.

A race about Trump

For many voters, the Senate race is also a referendum on President Donald Trump.

In the Hobby School poll, 59% of Paxton voters called their vote a vote in support of Trump. Among Talarico voters, 68% called theirs a vote against him. Marist found 38% of likely voters see their vote for Congress as a vote against Trump, 27% as a vote for him and 34% said he isn’t much of a factor.

Trump is underwater in all three polls. The Hobby School found him viewed favorably by 46% of likely voters and unfavorably by 54%. Marist put his job approval at 46% to 54%, and the UT poll at 42% to 52% among registered voters — his worst mark in that poll across both of his terms.

Who’s voting for whom

The Hobby School and Marist polls draw similar maps of the electorate. In the Hobby School poll:

• Age: Voters 18 to 34 back Talarico 71% to 19%; voters 55 and older back Paxton 58% to 38%.
• Gender: Women favor Talarico 53% to 43%; men favor Paxton 51% to 42%.
• Education: College graduates favor Talarico 56% to 38%; voters without a four-year degree favor Paxton 53% to 42%.
• Race and ethnicity: White voters back Paxton 55% to 40%; Latino voters back Talarico 54% to 40%; Black voters back Talarico 85% to 10%.
• Community: Urban voters favor Talarico 60% to 36%; suburban voters are split, 48% Paxton to 47% Talarico; rural voters favor Paxton 64% to 27%.

Rural Texas, which includes Kerr County, is among Paxton’s strongest ground in all three polls. In Kerr County, Paxton won 64% of the vote in the May GOP runoff, and Talarico took 70% of the county’s Democratic primary vote in March.

The big unknown: who shows up

The polls agree on the Senate race but differ on how many Democrats will actually vote.

The UT poll found Democrats far more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans — a reversal from 2022 — and its likely-voter results lean more Democratic than its registered-voter results. Marist found the opposite: Republicans were more likely to say they always vote, and its likely-voter results lean more Republican.

The Hobby School and Marist polls describe similar electorates. The Hobby School’s likely voters were 42% Republican, 31% Democratic and 23% independent; Marist’s were 42% Republican, 28% Democratic and 26% independent.

That’s the question early voting will begin to answer.

A record that’s never been tested like this

The October UT poll has picked the winner of every statewide race it tested in midterm elections since 2010, according to a Kerr County Lead analysis. But Republicans won all of those races, most by 10 points or more, and the closest October margin the poll had ever measured was a 6-point Republican lead.

This year, the Senate and governor’s races are closer than that in all three polls.

Elections and voting

The Hobby School poll also asked about voting rules. Large majorities support requiring a photo ID to vote in person (86%) and automatically registering all U.S. citizens to vote (76%). Sixty percent support allowing any eligible voter to vote by mail. Seventy percent of likely voters said they are very or somewhat confident the election will be conducted fairly and accurately.

About the polls: The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 2,000 Texas likely voters Oct. 10-14, 2026, by text message with an online survey, in English or Spanish; margin of error plus or minus 2.19 percentage points. Marist surveyed 1,196 registered voters Oct. 8-11 by phone, text and online; likely-voter margin of error plus or minus 4.9 points. The UT/Texas Politics Project surveyed 1,200 registered voters Sept. 25-Oct. 5; likely-voter margin of error plus or minus 3.34 points.