Kerr County’s first week of early voting, and what it may mean for Nov. 3

Through the first week of early voting, Kerr County is on pace for one of its busiest midterm elections in recent memory. So is the rest of Texas.

Through Sunday, 12,495 Kerr County voters had cast ballots, according to the Kerr County Elections Office: 11,463 in person and 1,032 by mail. That’s about 31.4% of the county’s registered voters, nearly one in three.

Here’s what the first week tells us, and what it doesn’t.

The numbers so far

Kerr County’s early vote has outpaced the 2022 midterm every day of early voting. Here is how each day compared with the same day in 2022:

• Monday: 2,538, up 43%
• Tuesday: 2,328, up 39%
• Wednesday: 2,046, up 35%
• Thursday: 1,693, up 17%
• Friday: 1,704, up 14%
• Saturday: 783, up 66%
• Sunday: 371. No ballots were cast on the corresponding Sunday in 2022.

Through seven days, in-person turnout is running 37% ahead of 2022. At this point four years ago, 8,381 voters had cast ballots in person. This year it’s 11,463.

About three in four in-person voters have cast ballots at the Kerrville site and one in four at the Ingram site.

The ballots cast so far already equal:

• 55% of the 22,604 ballots cast in the entire 2022 general election
• 93% of the 13,426 ballots cast in the March primary
• 80% of the in-person early votes cast during all of early voting in 2022

A statewide surge, not just a local one

Kerr County’s numbers are strong, but they’re not unusual this year. Turnout is up across Texas.

Through Sunday, Texas voters had cast about 4.39 million early ballots, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s office. That’s 80% of the 5.5 million early ballots cast during all of early voting in 2022, with five days still to go.

Kerr County is running at the same pace. Its early ballots so far equal 80% of its 2022 early-voting total. Among Texas’ 100 largest counties, Kerr ranks in the middle on that measure.

Some of the biggest increases are in urban and suburban counties. Dallas County has already cast 91% as many early ballots as in all of early voting in 2022. El Paso County is at 94% and Denton County at 87%.

Among the highest turnout in Texas

What sets Kerr County apart is its long habit of voting early and voting often.

Among Texas’ 100 largest counties, only Llano County (35.32%) had higher early turnout through Sunday than Kerr County (31.36%). Next were Burnet (30.42%), Williamson (30.16%) and Kendall (29.91%).

That’s familiar territory. In 2022, Kerr County finished early voting fifth among the state’s 100 largest counties, with 39.8% turnout, behind Kendall, Bandera, Comal and Washington counties.

Kerr County’s 370 Sunday voters helped widen its lead over Burnet County, which had pulled within about half a point on Saturday. Not every county held Sunday voting.

Statewide turnout through Sunday was 23.08%. That figure is likely to rise as some large counties, including Harris, Bexar and Fort Bend, finish reporting weekend totals.