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One week in, more than 1 in 4 Kerr County voters have cast ballots

Through Friday, 11,258 Kerr County voters had cast ballots, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s office: 10,307 in person and 951 by mail. That’s 28.31% of the county’s 39,762 registered voters.

After the first week of early voting, more than a quarter of Kerr County’s registered voters have already cast ballots in the Nov. 3 general election, one of the highest turnout rates in Texas.

Through Friday, 11,258 Kerr County voters had cast ballots, according to the Texas Secretary of State’s office: 10,307 in person and 951 by mail. That’s 28.31% of the county’s 39,762 registered voters.

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Statewide turnout through Friday was 19.11%, with about 3.64 million Texans voting early in person or by mail.

Ahead of 2022, but the gap is narrowing

On Friday, 1,705 Kerr County voters cast ballots in person, up 14% from the fifth day of early voting in 2022.

Through five days, in-person turnout is running 30% ahead of the 2022 midterm. At this point in 2022, 7,909 voters had cast ballots in person, or about 20% of registered voters.

Kerr County’s lead over 2022 has narrowed each day this week:

  • Monday: 2,538 voters, up 43% from the same day in 2022
  • Tuesday: 2,328, up 39%
  • Wednesday: 2,041, up 34%
  • Thursday: 1,683, up 16%
  • Friday: 1,705, up 14%

Thursday and Friday turnout was nearly identical, which suggests daily turnout may be leveling off at about 1,700 voters a day.

Measuring up to past elections

The 11,258 ballots cast in the first week equal:

  • about half of the 22,604 ballots cast in the entire 2022 general election, according to official county results
  • 84% of the 13,426 ballots cast in Kerr County’s March primary, counting early voting and Election Day
  • 72% of the 14,249 early in-person votes cast during all 12 days of early voting in 2022

Mail ballots make up about 8% of Kerr County’s early vote so far, similar to 2022, when 1,479 mail ballots made up about 7% of all ballots.

Second among Texas’ largest counties

Among Texas’ 100 largest counties, only Llano County had higher turnout through Friday. Hill Country counties hold six of the top eight spots:

  • Llano: 33.38%
  • Kerr: 28.31%
  • Burnet: 27.39%
  • Gillespie: 26.45%
  • Kendall: 25.99%
  • Williamson: 25.51%
  • Hays: 24.79%
  • Bandera: 24.47%

Kerr County’s lead over its neighbors is slim. Burnet County is less than a point behind, and Gillespie and Kendall are within about 2.5 points.

Where statewide races will be decided

Kerr County’s turnout is among the highest in the state, but statewide races will largely be decided elsewhere.

Texas’ 10 largest counties account for 57% of the state’s registered voters, and they have cast 57% of the early ballots so far. Turnout in those 10 counties through Friday was 19.23%, nearly the same as the 18.95% in the rest of the state.

The sheer number of voters in those counties outweighs high turnout in smaller ones. Harris County alone has cast about 456,000 early ballots, about 40 times Kerr County’s total.

Those big counties don’t all vote the same way. In the 2024 presidential election, six of them voted Democratic: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Fort Bend and El Paso. The other four, Tarrant, Collin, Denton and Montgomery, voted Republican.

So far, the four Republican-leaning counties are turning out at a slightly higher rate, 20.7%, than the six Democratic-leaning counties, at 18.6%. Harris County, the state’s largest, is at 16.6%, among the lowest of the 10.

Early turnout numbers don’t show how anyone voted, and Texas doesn’t register voters by party. In 2024, Democrats carried six of the state’s 10 largest counties but lost the presidential race in Texas by nearly 14 points.

Voting continues

Early voting continues through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

In 2022, 472 Kerr County voters cast ballots on the first Saturday of early voting, and no ballots were cast that Sunday. Daily turnout during the second week ranged between about 1,000 and 1,600.

Author

Growing up in Southern California, Louis Amestoy remained connected to Texas as the birthplace of his father and grandfather. Texas was always a presence in the family’s life. Amestoy’s great-grandparents settled in San Antonio, Texas, drawn by the city’s connections to Mexico and the region’s German communities. In 2019, Louis Amestoy saw an opportunity to make a home in Texas. After 30 years of working for corporate media chains, Louis Amestoy saw a chance to establish an independent voice in the Texas Hill Country. He launched The Lead to be that vehicle. With investment from Meta, Amestoy began independently publishing on Aug. 9, 2021. The Amestoys have called Kerrville home since 2019.

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