Report: Consumers aren’t excited about the state of the economy

Consumer sentiment plunged 11% in April, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline as Americans grow increasingly worried about trade tensions and economic stability.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 50.8 in April from 57.0 in March, representing a 34.2% drop from a year ago. This decline is “pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region, and political affiliation,” according to Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers.

“Sentiment has now lost more than 30% since December 2024 amid growing worries about trade war developments that have oscillated over the course of the year,” Hsu said. She noted that consumers report multiple warning signs pointing to recession risks.

Expectations for business conditions, personal finances, incomes, inflation and labor markets all continued to deteriorate. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise reached its highest level since 2009 — more than double the November 2024 reading.

Inflation expectations surged to 6.7% for the year ahead, the highest reading since 1981, marking four consecutive months of unusually large increases. Long-run inflation expectations climbed from 4.1% in March to 4.4% in April.

A special report released Friday by the University shows that these economic concerns cut across political lines. Despite typical partisan differences in consumer attitudes — where supporters of the party in power usually express higher sentiment — the survey found all three political groups (Republicans, Democrats and independents) are experiencing similar downward trends.

“These findings confirm the continued validity of our survey measurements,” Hsu said in the report. “Despite continued political polarization, independents are consistently in the middle and express views that reflect national estimates.”

The report notes that trends in sentiment and expectations for each political affiliation move in parallel over time, with high correlations between Democratic and Republican sentiment during previous administrations. Since the 2025 presidential inauguration, sentiment has fallen and inflation expectations have risen across all political groups.

Interviews for the preliminary April release were conducted between March 25 and April 8, closing prior to the April 9 partial reversal of tariffs. The final April data will be released on April 25.