Texas political notebook: Talarico back on the trail, Paxton’s Dubai problem and a Senate race that keeps tightening

Democratic U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico is back on the campaign trail after nine days off with the flu. He made an unannounced appearance Friday at the Austin City Limits music festival, The Texas Tribune reported. CNN reported he was in the front row of a Kacey Musgraves concert in Dallas the next night.

While he was out, Republican nominee Ken Paxton’s campaign demanded “proof of life,” launched a tip line for Talarico sightings and promoted missing-person posters. Some online speculation went much further. Conservative allies of Paxton claimed the absence was a stress-related episode and named a specific treatment center. That center, the Lindner Center for Hope, said Talarico was never treated there, according to Texas Public Radio. A Talarico spokesman confirmed the flu diagnosis and called the claims a lie built to promote a conspiracy theory.

The attacks left out some context. Talarico has Type 1 diabetes, and his diagnosis also came on the campaign trail. In May 2018, at 28, he fell ill during a 25-mile walk across his Texas House district, then slept for a day and a half before his parents took him to the hospital. His blood sugar was 900. He was in diabetic ketoacidosis, a life-threatening condition, and spent five days in intensive care. He described the episode in 2021, when he went public with the diagnosis while introducing a bill to cap out-of-pocket insulin costs at $50 a month, FOX 7 Austin reported.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people with diabetes, even when it is well managed, face a higher risk of serious flu complications. The agency recommends prompt antiviral treatment for people with diabetes who have the flu or suspect they do.

Paxton rang in 2025 in Dubai with two indicted donors

The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Paxton spent New Year’s Eve 2024 in Dubai with two men facing federal charges in the United States. The Justice Department announced in July 2024 that Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail were accused of embezzling more than $15 million from a Chicago hospital. Both men have since returned to the U.S. to face prosecution, according to coverage of the Journal’s report by Mediaite and Political Wire.

The Journal found Ahmed gave $190,000 to Paxton’s campaigns, including $25,000 days after his indictment. Footage reviewed by the newspaper shows Paxton watching the midnight fireworks over the Burj Khalifa with Tracy Duhon, the woman reported to be his girlfriend, while Suhail stood behind them. Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux did not directly address the Dubai trip and instead defended Paxton’s record.

Paxton’s private remarks keep leaking

The Dubai report follows a string of leaked recordings from Paxton’s private fundraisers. In audio obtained by The New York Times, Paxton told a small Washington fundraiser that President Donald Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas had hurt Republican candidates, FOX 7 Austin reported. The Times said the person who made the recording opposes Paxton’s campaign.

A second recording, published by Politico, has Paxton complaining that he isn’t in control of his own campaign, The New Republic reported. One attendee said Paxton never specifically mentioned Trump’s team.

The debate standoff, and a town hall tonight

Talarico has accepted four debate invitations, from CNN, Hearst, Nexstar and WFAA, and challenged Paxton to a debate on Fox News. Paxton has accepted none of them, even though a campaign spokesman said in July the candidates would debate. Paxton never debated his opponents in any of his three races for attorney general, The Texas Tribune reported.

After returning, Talarico turned the “proof of life” line around. He posted on X that he had challenged Paxton to a debate 85 days earlier and was now asking for “proof of ability to debate,” The National News Desk reported.

Talarico appears tonight at a CNN and Jubilee Media town hall in Fort Worth, moderated by Erin Burnett. Paxton was also invited. A Texas A&M student group had hoped to host a Paxton-Talarico debate the same night, but neither campaign committed, KBTX reported.

The Senate polls are tightening

With early voting days away, the latest surveys show a race inside the margin of error:

• UMass Lowell/YouGov (Sept. 18-28): Talarico and Paxton tied at 45% each, with 7% undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points, according to UMass Lowell.
• Quantus Insights (Oct. 9-11): Paxton 47.2%, Talarico 46.7% and Libertarian Ted Brown 2.2%, as reported by Townhall.
• ReconMR (released Oct. 13): The race has tightened since September. Talarico’s favorability slipped to 48% favorable and 43% unfavorable, from 50% and 39%. Paxton’s stands at 40% favorable and 55% unfavorable, USA Today reported.

Earlier October polls from YouGov, The New York Times and Fox News all showed Talarico ahead, by margins from 2 to 6 points.

Down the ballot

• Governor: An N+ Univision poll released Sept. 9 had Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa tied at 47%, with 5% undecided, FOX 7 Austin reported.
• Attorney general: In the race for Paxton’s open seat, a July poll had Republican Mayes Middleton at 39% and Democrat Nathan Johnson at 38%, with 18% undecided, FOX 4 reported. The poll came from Texas Public Opinion Research, which is run by Luke Warford, a Democrat who ran for the Railroad Commission in 2022.
• Lieutenant governor: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is seeking a fourth term against state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, D-Austin, who has attacked Patrick over his push to ban THC products. Libertarian Anthony Cristo and Green Party nominee Kevin McCormick are also on the ballot, the San Antonio Report noted.

Mark your calendar

• Early voting: Monday, Oct. 19, through Friday, Oct. 30
• Mail ballot applications: must be received by Friday, Oct. 23
• Election Day: Tuesday, Nov. 3
• Photo ID: required to vote in person

Voter information is available at VoteTexas.gov.